Article from a few weeks ago, but now that G. Elliott Morris is taking over without Nate’s models, I’m curious what lemmy’s think about political polling analysis from FiveThirtyEight?

  • TechnologyClassroom@partizle.com
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    9
    ·
    1 year ago

    I did not trust 538 before. I think a few major US election voter turnouts suffered because too many people thought the 538 results meant that their candidate was a sure thing.

    • primordial_chowder@beehaw.org
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      5
      ·
      1 year ago

      Based on the article, it looks like this change would make that a lot worse, since the main point of contention between Silver and the new guy seems to be that the new guy’s models are a lot more certain of the results too early. So candidates are going to look like the sure thing far more now most likely.

    • cerevant@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      4
      ·
      1 year ago

      I think releasing polls to the public is a bad thing for this reason. We ban releasing boat totals before the polls close for this exact same reason.

    • nodester@partizle.com
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      3
      ·
      1 year ago

      That’s a problem that could emerge with any system used to predict the outcome of any election.

      If you make a prediction, you’re arguably telling people not to vote.