A career State Department official resigned from her post on Tuesday, saying she could no longer work for the Biden administration after it released a report concluding that Israel was not preventing the flow of aid to Gaza.
Stacy Gilbert, who served as a senior civilian-military advisor to the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration (PRM), sent an email to staff saying she was resigning because she felt the State Department had made the wrong assessment, The Washington Post reported, citing officials who read the note.
The report was filed in response to President Joe Biden issuing a national security memorandum (NSM-20) in early February on whether the administration finds credible Israel’s assurances that its use of US weapons do not violate either American or international law.
The report said there were reasonable grounds to believe Israel on several occasions had used American-supplied weapons “inconsistent” with international humanitarian law, but said it could not make a definitive assessment - enough to prevent the suspension of arms transfers.
No, Biden has the brand recognition and is the party’s best chance to win. His administration does do a terrible job of selling the good things he is doing and he is shooting himself in the foot by not following through on his ‘red line’ with Rafah, but that isn’t enough of a negative to outweigh the lnown factor.
It sucks that winning a first past the post election based on the electoral college is how it works instead of something like ranked choice, but that is where we are at.
Biden isn’t going to win dude. He’s losing, hard L style right now.
Its not an issue with fptp, its not strategic voting.
He’s a shitty candidate that was always a comprise/ most-least preferred candidate and he’s not going to win.
Continuing to make the arguments that we need to stick with Biden is basically arguing to give the election to Trump.
So what’s your solution? Who has a better shot at winning the election in November if they started campaigning today? I want a specific name and why you think it would work. You know better than everyone, this should be easy for you (everyone else, watch for this sidestep and refusal to actually answer or back up anything).
You’re really good at claiming (almost to a point of preference) that Biden will lose and why we shouldn’t support them but not once have you provided anything of value that people can take action on. Everything you post appears to be designed to make people more apathetic and less likely to be involved, why is that?
Its not my job to give you a solution. I just need you to be real about the probability of failure of the strategy that you seem to be pot-committed to. And to be clear, we haven’t had a convention yet, so there is still time to change.
I’m offering you an analysis that makes a conclusion, that based on current polling, Biden can’t win this election. You might find it unpalatable, but that’s not my problem. Hope is a false
But this isn’t new news’. Biden has been struggling in this way for over a year, before Israel/ Gaza became hot. Biden’s chances have gone from “rough” to “very unlikely”. He’s actively working to distance himself from the positions of his base. Instead of rejecting Trump’s policy positions, he adopts them. Biden is catering to a non-existent center. It seems like he genuinely thinks that some republican voters are going to show up for him. There is 0 evidence from the previous three elections that any voters are convertible.
On the other side, maybe he gets laughed at, but Trump is going to the places that voters are and trying to get them (the sneaker thing, libertarian convention). Trump is trying to win this election. You win elections post 2016 by growing a base and driving them out to vote. It worked for Trump in 2016. It worked for Biden in 2020: Biden took on the most progressive platform in recent history to grow his base to include progressives.
Whats Biden’s platform in 2024? I don’t know about you but I have no fucking clue based on the campaigns messaging. Its all, just like you are parroting here, about how bad Trump is. And while you might find that convincing enough, there are obviously enough voters out there (about 12%) who don’t and that you can’t win the election without.
So I’m sorry. It hurts if he’s your hucklebee, but the guy can’t win right now. He’s statistically lost at this point. If beating Trump really is your goal, then you need to come up with a better candidate. Continuing to push for Biden when he can’t win dooms us all.
You keep saying Biden needs to be replaced but there’s literally no candidate to replace him with that beats Trump. If you’re so sure we need to ditch Biden, and you’re not advocating for Trump to win, it seems pretty fair to ask what you think should happen. Until you do that it’s pretty clear you’re just spewing bullshit in bad faith.
Sigh… Just because some one is pointing out the flaws in your approach to electoralism doesn’t mean they are acting in bad faith. Pretending that everyone who has a perspective you disagree with is out to get you is a poor way to go through life.
Recognizing that Biden can’t win is step one. There really is no point in a discussion around alternatives until that point is accepted. We can’t turn this ship until collectively, people understand that this guy isn’t going to win the election. It has to show up in mass, in the polling, and in the collective conversation.
As far as determining an alternative, there is a straightforward mechanism for that. Its called a convention, and conveniently, there is already one scheduled. Supreme court decided post 2016 that Dem’s can do whatever the fuck they want. So delegates go to the convention unaffiliated and we figure it out there.
It really doesn’t matter who the nominee is, so long as its neither Biden or Hillary. Any generic Democratic governor or senator will do fine. Trump is deeply unpopular. The problem we’re up against is that some how, Biden has managed his presidency in such a way as to be more unpopular than Trump.
And I’m telling you, there is no viable candidate you can nominate that has a better chance than Biden. “Generic Democrat” isn’t a candidate. Who’s polling better and is willing to run?
That’s the kind of take that gets Trump into office in 2024.
So then what take should I have to prevent Trump from winning? Specifics. You know what works, tell us. So far I’ve got:
Why can’t you defend anything you say? Why do you need to try and dodge questions and play rhetorical games? I have had 1 simple question this entire time and you won’t answer it.
Shitty compared to whom? To the leading republican? Are you high?
“Generic Democrat” polls 12 points higher than Biden.
You are leaving 12 points on the table with Biden. Interestingly, this is also the differential polling error associated with a Biden/ Trump head to head.
12 points is about the number Biden needs to be leading Trump to be ‘confident’ in victory. So quite literally “Any generic Democrat” is a less shitty candidate than Biden.