Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
www.natesilver.net
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

In Nate Silver’s electoral forecast, Trump is now leading Harris by 6.5% to win the electoral college.

This final stretch is eerily similar to Clinton/Trump.

I would appreciate people not knee-jerk downvoting this post just because they don’t like what it implies. It’s worth being aware that Trump has been steadily gaining for a month, Harris has been losing ground, and this model now has her likely to lose. Ignoring these facts makes it difficult to do anything about them.

  • abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us
    2·
    11 days ago

    The raw numbers aren’t directly on that post, we just have this - which mentions the model’s avg crafted from statewide polls is 1.9 vs 1.3 from the national polls.

    Last update: 11:45 a.m., Thursday, October 24. We’ve been starting to see more national polls showing Kamala Harris behind — certainly not a good sign for her given her likely Electoral College disadvantage. Her lead in our national polling average is down to just 1.3 points. The good news for Harris is that our model doesn’t care that much about national polls; instead, our forecast of the popular vote, which is mainly based on extrapolations from state polls, has her up 1.9.