In the latest version I found of Nate Silver’s model (not 538), he has Ohio coming in at 52.4% for Trump and 43.6% for Harris, an 8.8% spread. I did not dig deeper to find the dates or particular polls from Ohio he’s basing that on.

However, based on these numbers, he is likely modelling that Trump wins Ohio in 90%+ of outcomes to Harris’s <5% of outcomes.

This is the same way he spoke to his model in previous elections. It wasn’t that Hillary was expected to win 80-90% of the popular vote or electoral college just weeks before the 2016 election, it was that his model had her winning that percentage of the outcomes when he ran the model.

I got a hail of down votes just two weeks ago for saying Democrats are appealing to the Republicans 10-20 years ago, and now here we are.

Couldn’t the campaign be about championing progressive change on popular issues rather than capitulating to Republican narratives on immigration and crime, and being “honored” by the endorsement of war criminals?

And who is writing shit like “most lethal fighting force” into her convention acceptance speech, while Trump is out there on the road saying no more wars. I don’t believe him, but plenty of moms and dads of soldiers will.

They keep bragging about many Republicans they had on stage. Great, I guess the Democrats are just the Republicans from 10-20 years ago if those speakers find the current Democratic party palatable. I’m sure that will rally people to vote blue like they did in 2008. Was it caving on immigration, peace, and crime what made Obama so popular?

Not true. Trump prominently mentioned his son Barron and his proficiency with “the cyber”, eight years ago.

Primary election

Classic Dutch beach volleyball sleeping positions

Same with your side gig.

It is not a flex if your primary job isn’t enough to pay the bills. It’s a societal failure that wages have not kept up with inflation and that capitalism continues to filter the benefits of increased productivity to ownership at the expense of labor. Being forced to cope with your own exploitation, or worse, figuring out how to exploit others, is not the flex you think it is

And if it ain’t about the money, it’s definitely not a flex that you filled your free time with more work. Unless you’re trying to make your side gig into your 9-5, there is a world of activities, hobbies, and pastimes to better yourself that you are missing out on.

former leader. She’s grandma with a seat in Congress now, but the press won’t move on, especially if she’s saying Trump level shit like this.