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Cake day: September 13th, 2023

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  • I agree with your take on the old 538 model, but if you read Nateā€™s new substack it become pretty clear that heā€™s been ā€˜capturedā€™. Almost all of his post seem to fairly anti-Harris in their biases and it feels like all of his writings are really meant for one person, that person being the owner of Polymarket who he has a very large consulting contract. What these biases are doing to the Model I donā€™t know but the new model at 538 which was built from the ground up by other statisticians consistently trends about 10-20% higher odds for Harris taking the election.




  • It was less about the studio meddling and a bit more about the people who were involved werenā€™t in awe of George. His, at the time, wife was the editor on the first movie and she made a lot of changes in the editing bay to improve what was a bit of a mess they say. And donā€™t discount the amount of rewrites done on the fly by the cast. Carrie was taking everyone scripts and punching them a lot and she went on to become one of best punch up writers in Hollywood. Even Harrison Ford, a notoriously shy and conflict avoidant guy, was improvising his lines because he knew that Han wouldnā€™t say ā€œI love you, tooā€ even facing being frozen in Carbonite.