Ben Matthews

It’s about future oil and gas expansion (FOGE), what matters to the atmosphere is the total - identifying potential threat. Effectively multiplying FOGE by area (as shown) doesn’t make sense, but neither does FOGE per capita (as most is exported, not consumed locally). I’d suggest just a sized blob for each country - then can show some other dimension with the color.

As a small kid I learned i = i +1, before any maths teacher told me it couldn’t.

Hi, excuse me for replying so late, but i’ve been away from lemmy for.a while. Well, to summarise, the model calculates the future trajectories, of population, economy, emissions, atmospheric gases, and climate response etc., according to a set of (hundreds of) diverse options and uncertainties which you can adjust - the key feature is that the change shows rapidly enough to let you follow cause -> effect, to understand how the system responds in a quasi-mechanical way.
Indeed you are right, complexity is beautiful, but hard. A challenge with such tools is to adjust gradually from simple to complex. Although SWIM has four complexity levels, they are no longer systematically implemented - also what seems simple or complex varies depending where each person is coming from, so i think to adapt the complexity filter into a topic-focus filter. Much todo …

Hmm, publishing that will really help those Crimean beach hotels get customers for this summer…

It’s worth trying, the principle works.
Indeed I even felt it from paragliding, how large dark patches form rising convection cells, later fluffy clouds.
Unstable air is also needed, which is rare within the descending side of big Hadley cells - why these areas are deserts. Otoh the big deserts were greener in the past, so it might be possible again.

I can relate to this, having developed a coupled socio-emissions-carbon-climate model, which evolved for 20 years in java, until recently converted to scala3. You can have a look here. The problem is that “coupling” in such models of complex systems is a ‘good’ thing, as there are feedbacks - for example atmospheric co2 drives climate warming but the latter also changes the carbon cycle, demography drives economic growth but the latter influences fertility and migration, etc… (some feedbacks are solved by extrapolating from the previous timestep - the delay is anyway realistic). There are also policy feedbacks - between top-down climate-stabilisation goals, and bottom up trends and national policies, the choice affects the logical calculation order. All this has to work fast within the browser (now scala.js - originally java applet), responding interactively to parameter adjustments, only recalculating curves which changed - getting all these interactions right is hard.
If restarting in scala3 I’d structure it differently, but having a lot of legacy science code known to work, it’s hard to pull it apart. Wish I’d known such principles at the beginning, but as it grew gradually, one doesn’t anticipate such complexity.

There is no climate panacea, only baskets of solutions. Bamboo has remarkable properties from an engineering pov - strong light hollow tubes, and so could be used more to substitute for plastics and metals, in relatively short-lived products (which most are). You are right that it’s not so durable as wood from trees, and it’s more suited to wet climates. I have several kinds in my garden, green in winter, grape vines dangle along it in summer, a shallow root barrier (old tiles) contain it.

One reason people stick on Lemmy and other fediverse communities, is the choice of quality over quantity (in this case - wrt comments). So quality over quantity could also apply to platforms like Codeberg. Github has so many abandoned student projects or forks going nowhere - maybe making the effort to look beyond the obvious is an indicator of serious (new) projects and contributors ?

Saw same band (±) perform this in Norwich almost 30 yrs later, classic. As students we used to add ‘actions’ to dramatise it.

No. Sea-level is rising, much of Lagos will be underwater. So they’ll have to relocate. It’s slow so more people could live there for the next few decades, but mega-construction not be a wise investment.
Demographic projections have a lot of inertia, but sea-level rise (transfer of heat into the deep ocean and icecaps) has even more inertia (in my model i explore both, although sorry SLR is out-of-date and not yet detail at city level, but the inertia is there).

a good hedge should bet on a wide range of possibilities

Being good at passing exams (“majoring”) is just the first stage, continuing in the topic as a career depends more on networking skills.

I began programming java climate model with UK keyboard. When I moved to the continent, switched to swiss then belgian keyboard to better type emails/docs in french, but it was so tedious for code brackets {[()]} and some other punctuation, eventually switched back. Recently converted whole codebase to Scala 3 (here’s the model), now can drop most of those brackets. I speculate whether one motivation for creating scala3 (made in in Lausanne) was swiss/french keyboards.

Hmmm, so maybe such a search engine could began with a whitelist of ‘real’ journalistic sites from around the word, inviting suggestions for more, keeping a reputation score for each, evidence of plagiarism / AI risks to be dropped. If the list is smaller, the searching task is easier. It shouldn’t be funded by advertising, as that provides bad incentives. Maybe small subscriptions both for searchers and sites on list, to balance incentives.
Fediverse likes / votes / boosts could also help provide rankings for such an engine (evaluating external links, not message content), as real people here are checking stuff, and it’s less distorted by commercial clickbait motives.

Good article, big problem, but I doubt email lists are a solution. I have over years subscribed to many email lists, they get filtered to mailboxes by topic, which I’m afraid to open because overwhelmed by messages. I prefer to find specific news items recommended by communities as here on Lemmy. As for AI dominating SEO for google, it seems there could be an opening for a new search engine that guarantees only content from original-sources, neither AI nor content-farms.

I like Scala:

• multi-paradigm, you can explore many ways of doing something, within one codebase - arguably the most complex language, if you want, but doesn’t have to be: start simply, later scales robustly
• compiles and interoperates with JS, JVM, native
• Scala3 dropped brackets - easily readable like python
• great tooling (recently) - compiler infers so much -> less puzzles / testing
• developed mainly in europe, not controlled by big-tech

Fwiw, here’s my interactive climate system model running in pure scala.

Pretty images from far away (for most of us) … but don’t forget Laki volcano on Iceland led to two years without a summer harvest, and hence to the french revolution - these eruptions can have a big influence on history (future)…

Too true.
I still remember when java5 came out, many new features, great potential for a massive refactoring of my interactive climate model. Within that, I had an idea called “parallel worlds” for comparing scenarios, whereby for efficiency data was shared for parts of the system, and split across parts that varied as user adjusted parameters. So I pulled apart the whole codebase, and joined it back together again… - about two years later, by which time colleagues had given up interest.
[ story simplified to relate to point of OP - not only task in two years! ].
Now I develop a derivative climate system model in scala, but evidently it’s more interesting to develop some new complex part of the science code, than fix a graphical interface for beginners. But moods vary - some days lacking energy for refactoring, could be satisfied ticking off a few small tasks in a todo list. Yet after some time, brain craving for another big new complex idea…

In defence of the jack-of-all-trades, if everybody is a cog in the machine, nobody sees the overview of how the cogs could connect.
For what it’s worth, here’s an overview of some cogs made by a j-o-a-t, for whom software developer is just a sub-role, within understanding complex climate system.

It’s only 5th December, seems unusually early for -58º. From Wikipedia - Yakutsk, maybe daily min should be about -37º now. I recall crossing Siberia by train in early December, rain in west, fresh snow in east, lakes still water, yet coming back in April you could still walk on Baikal. Seems odd, but they get extra problem of fires in winter, as fire hoses freeze, can’t extinguish them. Anyway polar vortex went wobbly recently, so we get alternating cold and warm waves - always look for both sides of regional anomalies.