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51·7 months agoHow about just 0 and 1? They didn’t specify what base.
13·11 months agoPolling errors are not predictable beforehand. If they were, we wouldn’t have polling errors. In 2022 for instance there was polling error in favor of democrats not against (or at least too much emphasis on polls with errors in Republican favor).
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html
We can’t know the electorate beforehand, so poll weighting and deciding who is a likely voter is always going to involve some guesswork. So the opposite of what you say is true as well, if there is a small polling error that overstates Trump’s support it would have Kamala sweeping every swing state.
But the polls show a close election, all we can do is do our best to do things that help her win. Like voting early to make sure our vote gets in no matter what, encouraging people we know to register and vote, volunteering, canvassing, donating, etc.
Also important to know, if democrats take back the house, Johnson would no longer be speaker at the time the presidential election is certified. It’s the next congress, not the current one, that will certify the vote. New congress is seated on January 3rd 2025, and the presidential election certification is on January 6th 2025.
I hate these hyperbolic headlines describing some tiny poll movement in a single poll well within the margin of error, describing it a some definitive clear change in support.
Here’s the times sienna poll today for instance, another high quality pollster, where she went from tied to now 3% ahead and is leading for the first time in that poll since July.
If the race is truly a 3 point gap right now, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent, you’re going to see polls with her everywhere from one behind to 7 ahead. It’s a bad idea to hyper scrutinize or draw big conclusions from tiny changes in one poll.
This is why we so desperately need the voting rights act back. It used to be that changes like this required pre clearance before taking effect, and any challenges be worked out before hand.
Another terrible supreme court decision courtesy conservatives/Republicans who don’t respect the right to vote.
So the model image you posted above there says it’s more likely that Trump wins the election than it is flipping two heads in a row while flipping a coin. This is saying it’s less likely for Trump to win than Hillary to win, but something that could fairly easily happen still. These aren’t poll numbers, where 70-30 would be a massive blow out. This is a 30% chance of winning for Trump, closer to a coin flip than a sure thing.
A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver’s model seems better than others based on this, if anything.
Unfortunately the interest rate is specifically set by law and tied to 10 year treasury bill rates. This cannot be altered with an executive action, would need congress to change the law.
https://studentaid.gov/understand-aid/types/loans/interest-rates#who-sets
That’s why the executive orders are focused on things like minimum payments, how long it takes to get forgiveness, who qualifies, etc, because the laws give the department of education more latitude to adjust those things (or are supposed to at least, weird rulings from republican judges notwithstanding).
It wasn’t the same thing, all three of them were different plans using different justifications based on different laws. One was a blanket forgiveness based on laws allowing for adjustments of student loans in emergencies. One is need based or other circumstance based forgiveness based on a much earlier law giving the department of education wide latitude to make adjustments. And one was adjustments to the income based repayment plans based on the laws establishing those (this has happened many times in the past, such as the establishment of the PAYE and REPAYE plans).
It’s especially egregious that judges are blocking the SAVE plan, as many similar adjustments have been made to income based repayment plans previously with no one taking any issue.
You can say it’s not enough if you want, but you can’t say it’s nothing. Certainly gets Netanyahu upset at least.
It also includes restoration of the child tax credit, just like we had during the pandemic when monthly checks were sent out to all parents and the child poverty rate was cut in half overnight. This is just an even bigger payment for the year they are a newborn.
Trying to decipher his words is like dementia astrology, who knows. If he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, we surely can’t either.
Yes this is the direct quote the article refers to. He rambles nonsense, often self contradicting, and then people in the media try to fashion it into coherent points for him, leading to a fake impression of competency, misleading the public and voters. This is the man who had to have his national security briefings summarized into a few brief bullet points with pictures, and he was apparently still unable to read them.
If he was ever going to follow through with it at all (doubtful), it was a hollow pledge that wouldn’t have affected most of the tipped income or helped most tipped workers in the country anyways:
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/trump-eliminate-taxes-tips-restaurant-workers-wages
Now things that Harris proposes like re expanding the child tax credit (refundable meaning paid out even if the person doesn’t pay taxes) could provide a huge boost to workers with kids, for just one example. Or for another, Trump’s proposed tarrifs costing each family $1700 a year on average. Or another, Harris continuing to appoint labor friendly individuals to the NLRB, helping to fight employers engaging in union busting activities. Easy choice.
“Google, nobody called from Google. One of the things like doing a show like yours, your show, you know, you see it on Fox, but when you really see it is all over the place, they take clips of your show that you’re doing right now with me and if I do a good job, they’re gonna vote for me, they’re gonna vote for me because it’s not just on Fox, it’s on Fox is a smaller part of it. You’re on all over this, those little beautiful cell phones you’re on, you’re all over the place. You have a product, you have a great product. You have a great brand. So you have to get out, you have to get out, you have to do things like your show and other shows and Google has been very bad. They’ve been very irresponsible and I have a feeling that Google is gonna be close to shut down”
Can anyone help? I don’t have a senile narcissist to English translator!
Michael Steele is commenting and was a former RNC head, so he probably has some kind of idea of the scale of this being impressive. Would have been better to have some sort of past numbers published for comparison though as you say.
*Making more oil than Saudi Arabia since 2018:
Alright, then you strongly implied Biden doesn’t speak out about that. There’s been many people on abortion related threads who falsely say or imply that, and I don’t know any other way someone could reasonably read your comment. It’s still there to place an edit afterwards if you’d like to clarify what you meant exactly.
I know you’re a troll, but just in case someone well meaning stumbles across this, Biden has called for this so many times.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2024/
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-06-27/trump-biden-abortion-presidential-debate
This took about three minutes to find, all from 2024.
He is also literally speaking on it this very moment, as I type this, in a speech marking the anniversary of the civil rights movement.
Just for added context, the NIH is the largest funder of medical research in the United States by far. This is absolutely devastating to medical research across the entire country, and the world considering how sprawling and interconnected many of these projects are. This is money that was by law supposed to be distributed to researchers doing important work across the country and internationally, on everything from Alzheimers to cancer to ALS. This will mean the closure of many labs, interrupted and halted clinical trials, many scientists, technicians and coordinators being laid off, and many young scientists never even getting the chance to get their career of the ground. The breadth of the damage from this blatantly illegal sequestration of funds is difficult to describe.
Edit: Headline was changed shortly after I posted this. Decision was so horrific even they reversed themselves after only hours. Even without this things are still bad at NIH though and with medical research funding, so please keep talking to anyone you can about supporting medical research and stopping republicans from destroying it.