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Cake day: July 4th, 2023

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  • KevonLooney@lemm.eetoScience Memes@mander.xyzNever Forget
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    2 months ago

    Yes, that’s right. Basically you can’t rely on polls this far from the election.

    The question says “if the election were held today, who would you vote for”. But the election isn’t today, and the person answering the question knows that. So you see more people answer with third party candidates then would actually vote that way.

    Not only that, but candidates’ GOTV efforts do not happen until the election is approaching soon. That’s what actually wins elections, not polls from 6 months before.



  • KevonLooney@lemm.eetoScience Memes@mander.xyzNever Forget
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    2 months ago

    You’re wrong about a lot and you’re presenting your opinions as fact. Trump doesn’t underpoll by that amount now.

    There was a phenomenon in 2016 where people were reluctant to tell pollsters they were voting for him, because they were embarrassed. Now Trump supporters are the loud minority of voters. And Biden is the boring safe choice. Biden voters are less likely to stay on the phone and answer questions.

    Also, national polls mean very little. You have to actually look at the swing state polls to find out who’s winning. And there’s not much data this far from the election.

    Finally, we can tell there’s something wrong with current polling just because “Mr. Brainworms” RFK Jr polls around 10% right now. No one is going to vote for him, and definitely not 10% of the population. People are just fucking with the pollsters right now. Do you know anyone seriously considering voting for RFK Jr?




  • This is pretty interesting. Reminds me of the ADHD posts on here where people get their meds right and are like “I have superpowers now. I just think about doing something and I do it.”

    I would like to add something else: laziness and relaxation are totally fine as a part of your life. Athletes know that how you recover from training is as important as the training you do. They literally schedule rest days, and rest periods in each day. If you want to do anything well, you have to have time away from it to recover.


  • Interesting article but this was not a strategic victory for Iran or Israel. Israel had some economic and diplomatic consequences and Iran’s drones are exposed as vulnerable to modern air defenses. Half of their drones and missiles crashed on takeoff. Fewer countries are going to want to buy them after seeing that.

    The US, UK, France, and Jordan are the winners because they got a free test taking down a bunch of hostile drones in a real world scenario. They didn’t waste any money that wouldn’t have been spent shooting practice targets anyway.