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Cake day: August 14th, 2024

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  • Kamala is going to win comfortably. Mark it.

    Popular vote? Oh yeah, not even a question. Harris is going to absolutely dominate in the popular vote.

    Electoral vote? Oh see, thatā€™s a different story. Shit is close, like uncomfortably close.

    Biden pulled Michigan in 2020 by about 150k votes. A 2.8% margin. And he was up in the polls by 10% going into it. Right now Harris is showing only a 1.7% lead in the polls in Michigan. Harris has to absolutely take Michigan, thereā€™s not a path to winning without Michigan without pulling something like Ohio or Georgia, which sheā€™s 6% under in Ohio and 2% under in Georgia. So the GA surprise, nobody should be counting on that. Georgia by the numbers is going Trump this election. Ohio is solid Trump territory. Thinking Florida or Texas might sway is foolish thinking. So without those four, Harris has to pick up the Rust belt if she wants to win, and sheā€™s not polling well there. Like sheā€™s ahead, but Biden was double digits leading the Rust belt in 2020 and that turned into single digit percentage leads in votes. Harris has single digit leads in the Rust Belt polls (in aggregate).

    If Harris wins this, in the electoral college, itā€™s going to be by the thinnest margins weā€™ve seen before. Not even joking, Trump on the Electoral college has a collection of states that heā€™s made incredibly safe that puts only a handful of battlegrounds he needs. Harris has nothing but uphill from where we are currently at.

    The lead is larger than the one Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in the 2016 election as the Democratic nominee woos swing states

    From the article. And Clinton lost by some of the thinnest margins in key states. In Michigan, she lost by 0.1% of the vote. That was a massive loss that costed Clinton incredibly. Literally 10,000 votes were the difference. The Libertarian candidate received twelve times the number of votes that Clinton lost by. WI, MI, and PA, Clinton lost those three states by less than 100,000 votes. And it was those losses that gave Trump the win. Less than 100,000 votes is was made the 2016 election.

    Anybody who thinks this election is a done deal is talking out their ass. You run the numbers for who will win which State, Trump is inches from victory. This is going to be a insanely close race. Everyone HAS TO GET OUT THERE and vote. This is going to get decided by single digit percents in key states if not even closer than that.







  • can absolutely withhold weapons see leahy

    He canā€™t legally, and Republicans in the House would absolutely jump at the chance to impeach Biden and have it carry over into the next session as Democrats did with Trumpā€™s second impeachment. It would literally be the train they ride till midterms.

    Gosh you are really bad at this.

    You clearly confuse words on paper with real world consequences

    I donā€™t think youā€™ve ever worked for the Government. You are insanely bad at this.

    Iā€™ve given you plenty of opportunity and youā€™re just spewing ā€œnothing means anything anymore!!!ā€ Gosh, itā€™s not like I havenā€™t met countless numbers of you types.

    Not once have you managed to identify how the judicial branch can hold a president accountable\

    Enjoined. You clearly arenā€™t reading anything, Iā€™m not typing any more. Consider yourself blocked, you are a waste of time.




  • Ugh. This is why I hate summary because thereā€™s always someone who is like ā€œyou didnā€™t explain EvErYtHiNg so youā€™re wrong!ā€ While youā€™re trying to flesh things out you always miss a ton of things too that neither one of us touched on, and I didnā€™t because it increases what needs to be talked about when what I originally said was correct.

    entire wall of text

    I hate this term because it shows that people are trying to oversimplify something that is in itself complex. Additionally, youā€™re trying to point out things but you didnā€™t cover everything either. Which is why especially here, this annoying. Youā€™re basically trying to make an argument of ā€œyou explain too muchā€ and ā€œyou didnā€™t explain enoughā€. Itā€™s a damned if you do and damned if you donā€™t argument that youā€™re trying to make. Iā€™m calling you out on it because you are attempting a no correct way to answer line of questioning. Iā€™ll give you this reply, but you keep going on this thread like this, Iā€™ll just block you. I donā€™t have the time for childish game. If you have a point make it, if you donā€™t stop beating around the bush. Thatā€™s all there is to it.

    a position that is easily filled without congressional confirmed

    Thatā€™s not correct. Iā€™ll point to the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998 5 USC Ā§ 3345. You seem smart enough, you can figure out why Sec. of State quitting and the deputy becoming acting would trigger such a response.

    someone didnā€™t pay attention to trumps presidency at all

    Again, Iā€™ll point to the many failures on exclusive authority during that term. Namely you can see the multiple failures along the regulation of coal that failed exclusive authority. Acting has only nonexclusive duties for the 210 day period and the extended period of 300 days on inauguration. Hence the failures on rule making.

    what youā€™re missing is that during that time the president can just not due what the law says and these things can take years.

    Yes, this is why enjoining an EO exists as a measure for the courts. Immediate relief is something the claimants can seek when bringing the issue up to the courts. Thatā€™s why you hear emergency relief often with controversial orders.

    Secondly even if a judge blocks an EO the president can still do it the judge has no enforcement mechanism.

    The enforcement is via Congress at that point. If a just rules something as violation of the Court order, thatā€™s easily handled by Congress.

    worcester v georgia

    Just so weā€™re clear the Nullification scandal, Jackson indicated he was ready to march troops into South Carolina and shooting the government if need be. That was with eye to Georgia daring them the exact same thing. Weā€™d revisit that willingness to march troops into the State and start shooting State Government members about thirty years later.

    So just, so weā€™re clear the Worcester you cite, we got ready to have a preemptive war over the matter. Iā€™m not sure the argument youā€™re providing holds a lot of water here in that ā€œthey can do what they want to do with no ramificationsā€. Clearly getting shot at by the Army is a ramification that at the time neither party wanted to try out. But we did give it a go a bit later.

    abraham lincoln did it w/ habeus corpus

    Yeah. Thing called the Civil War.

    Franklin D. Roosevelt

    Was kicked to Congress, like I said it would be. Was mulled and Congress decided to take a pass. But thatā€™s not free from consequences. Additionally, Congress had indicated to FDR to wrap that shit up with the alphabet groups. Youā€™ll note how many of them didnā€™t last. CCC still a thing?

    biden can easily deal with blinken, its called firing and assigning a temporary individual to the role

    Again see FVRA.

    not like he has a lot of time left thereā€™d be no time to confirm a new individual anyways

    Again see FVRA, carry over has a lot more impact in the first 300 day period than having an acting position.

    Now Harris is, sheā€™s the one who has committed to genocide at this point thats causing the issue not blinken

    That is just plainly incorrect.

    Youā€™re entire ā€˜civicsā€™ lesson ignores the historical realities of the presidency and EOs

    And you covered zero of them either. Iā€™ve provided more context to the examples that you gave. But the reality is that ā€œthe historical realities of EOsā€ is a complex issue. But apparently you donā€™t like walls of text.

    especially in light of the recent SCOTUS ruling on presidential powers which expanded this ability by conferring it judicial backing

    I take it that you are referring to Trump v US. None of that has any bearing on the matter of what Bliken does or doesnā€™t do. If Biden simply just withheld funds and gave everyone the finger, heā€™d still be subject to Congressional review of his actions and possible impeachment. That is not being free of ramifications.


  • If you want to keep up with daily events in the Executive, the Federal Register (Fed. Reg. or FR) cannot be beat. It contains all of the FOIA request, every public inspection requirement, CFR proposals, Executive Orders, Presidential Proclamations, and so forth.

    If you want something more specific to rule making, you can find that here. Rule making makes a bit more sense when you think about it. Say Congress passes a law that says ā€œbuild me a road between Texas and South Dakotaā€. The law will usually say who (department) is in charge of that and then that department will take the money and begin rule making. Rule making is basically laying out the path the road will take, what kind of materials will be used, what companies are allowed to bid, environmental guidelines, etc, etc ,etcā€¦ Once those rules have been made the who is going to do it is determined. Like Highways in this case, the Federal Government provides the money and the States are the ones who select the labor and make minor course corrections to the highway (like if itā€™s about to pass through a cemetery or something).

    Rule making is also sometimes called regulation. Because the agency put in charge is regulating the action being done to ensure compliance with what they think the law is asking for, because Congress is very NOT detail oriented until they really want to be. Also with rule making, Congress can ā€œaskā€ a department to come in and meet with them if Congress thinks some of the rules donā€™t mesh with what they were thinking.

    Thereā€™s also override laws, which Congress passes like a normal law. These laws, remember the Constitution requires laws to be applied equally if they involve the public so these override laws are written as such so that they only apply to a executive department, specifically smack the department over the head and ā€œcorrectsā€ where the rule making went wrong. These donā€™t happen often, but we did have one back in Trump days over the FCC. The FCC had made a new rule that required ISPs to get permission to sell customer data, and Congress plus then President Trump overrode the FCC, explicitly banning them from ever creating such a rule. Itā€™s still open if the FTC could make such a rule. But thatā€™s an example of an override of regulation.

    Oh also my whole comment didnā€™t even touch on the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998, which is what would happen if a Secretary quits. Very, very, very long story short. The Deputy Secretary automatically gets to become the ā€œactingā€ Secretary BUT they cannot do any ā€œexclusive actionsā€, which that Leahy rule is indeed an exclusive action. The ā€œactingā€ Secretary can only maintain ā€œstatus quoā€ until the Senate Confirms that the acting secretary is indeed the actual secretary. But an ā€œactingā€ position can only last for 210 days, after which the office is then considered ā€œvacantā€, but none of that matters anymore because Congress uses ā€œpro formaā€ sessions to prevent recessed appointments. But typically, if a position is ā€œvacantā€ and Congress is not in Session, the President can make a recess appointment.

    If you ask me, what we really need is an Amendment to the Constitution that provides the President a way to declare Congress as absent and if some threshold of Congress doesnā€™t become present, then the President can then call Congress not in Session. The whole ā€œpro formaā€ sessions of Congress really needs to stop, like in a really bad way. Sort of like how Filibuster should return to requiring a person physically speak for the entire duration of the filibuster and must remain on topic.

    Congress has gotten really soft on everything and thatā€™s allowed them to permit a lot of bad faith actions in Congress to happen. It used to be that it was ā€œgentlemanā€™s agreementā€ that Congress would behave and act in good faith, but boy have we really fallen down on that since the 1980s.

    Anyway, Iā€™m rambling.


  • Oh man, this is a doozy. You arenā€™t wrong but Iā€™ve got to get some sleep. To explain this is A LOT.

    The thing is the Leahy Law doesnā€™t put the power directly in the Presidentā€™s hands. It grants the vetting process to the Secretary of State. Which is a member of the cabinet of the President. Which I donā€™t know how familiar you are with how the Executive Office works or not. But Secretary of State Antony Blinken is the one who wields the power to deny Israelā€™s aid.

    Thereā€™s Executive Orders (EO) that the President can give but thereā€™s the whole ā€œwhat ifā€ Blinken quits given an EO and then we have to get the Senate involved which is currently 50-50 on Republicans and Democrats. Which that turns it even more complex and Senators can delay confirmation until after the election or if theyā€™re really bitter, until next year. Which means that everything that requires a Secretary of State would get put on pause.

    I get that everyone thinks the President gets to have the final say, but the President orders people around on EOs, which the various Secretaries can just quit if they donā€™t want to follow them, and then that kicks everything to the Senate. Thatā€™s kind of a built in protection in our system of Government to prevent a President becoming a dictator. If a President wants XYZ done and the Secretary thinks thatā€™s bad, they quit and the Senate becomes involved potentially delaying the President forever.

    Thereā€™s way more background on why Blinken has only stopped two aids and also because of classification reasons, not every stopping of aid can be published, unless the President does so since the President has unilateral authority on classification markings (except for anything related to the name of spies and nuclear bomb designs, that is one of the few things that requires both the President and Congress to sign off on, thereā€™s a few other exceptions as well but I wonā€™t go into them).

    But anyways, Blinken is the one who can stop aid. The President could order him, but he could also quit, which means the Senate would get involved, and I can explain why all of that would be messy if you need me to.

    why canā€™t he veto the military aid

    The President only has veto power on bills that have passed both the House and the Senate. Once something becomes law, the President ā€œhasā€ to carry it out. Thereā€™s a ton of background on ā€œExecutive Discretionā€ and any time the President wants to exercise discretion, Congress can sue, which then brings the matter into the other branch, the Judicial. Plenty of States that would sign on, to a Congressional suit (which thatā€™s a requirement for Congress to sue the President, at least one State has to join in).

    So Biden could use Discretion to delay funding, and heā€™s done that quite a few times, but he canā€™t just outright NOT pay when the law requires him to do so. That discretion comes from a kind of EO called a ā€œReviewing Executive Orderā€ and it requires a department to ā€œreviewā€ ((insert whatever the topic is)). Thatā€™s a delay, but it isnā€™t a halt. The President has to follow the law as well. So if we have a law that says, ā€œwe provide $xxx to Israelā€™s Iron Domeā€, we have to send that money to them at some point.

    A lot of the funds that Israel is getting, is funding they secured before the Gaza invasion. Thereā€™s been recent upping of that funding that Congress has passed, but thatā€™s been on things called Continuing Resolutions (CR). Republicans in the House (who are the ones who control what the US Budget is) have been using CRs to get choice things enacted. Thatā€™s because Republicans in the House have passed rules on how a budget may be formed in the House that are impossible to comply with (which thatā€™s a whole long story). So if Democrats in the House refuse to accept the CRs the Republicans offer, the Government shuts down.

    Anyways, thatā€™s been a lot already. If you need me to clear anything up, let me know. But Harris likely wouldnā€™t have Blinken as Secretary of State, which would fix A WHOLE LOT. But I donā€™t know, because if the election isnā€™t kind to Democrats in the Senate and Republicans have a majority in the Senate, they could block Harrisā€™ Sec. of State unless they specifically pledged to support Israel. Now they could absolutely lie about that, but then Congress could also impeach them, but that would cut off aid to Israel for some time as thatā€™s not an easy process to impeach a secretary of state.


  • Green party hits 5%, they get federal election funding, we are no longer a 2 party nation

    Bullshit. They have been receiving public funds you numb nuts. You can verify that from the Federal Election Commission. Here is their spreadsheet they provide as summary.

    Please go fuck off with this argument as it is 100% verifiably false. This is literally lies that the Green party has told you. They routinely squander the money they receive because they hire zero talent to actually use funds in a meaningful manner. They have zero ground game, they only focus on top ticket rarely if ever down ticket, and office and PR positions are absolute shit.

    Holy fucking shit have you eaten their lies, whole cake worth of them. I am so sorry you think the current leadership of the Green party is actually honest. Maybe if we were talking the 1980s leadership, but holy fuck, the Green party today has been overtaken by folks who are in it for them and them alone. And they go out and play victim, ā€œOh this system is not fair!!!ā€ When their own willful incompetence ruined any chance.

    I wonā€™t have this bullshit of victim they play. The Green party can suck a dick, the people running it have successfully ran that fucking boat into the goddamn iceberg at full throttle. Anyone supporting Stein is so fucking clueless at this point, thereā€™s zero redemption. Jill ainā€™t in this for any kind of morality, sheā€™s in it for money, lights, and attention. The number of people who havenā€™t caught on to this is absolutely astounding.

    But we are NOT going to pretend that the Green party hasnā€™t been receiving federal election funds, when that is so effortlessly proven FALSE. If youā€™ve been giving her money, she using that money to eat well, cause she ainā€™t spending it on getting elected. And I assure you, sheā€™ll be out and about playing victim when she loses this time too.

    Green party hits 5%, they get federal election funding, we are no longer a 2 party nation

    But BULLSHIT, BULL FUCKING SHIT. BULL ---- SHIT!! That bitch has had millions handed to her and we still a two party system. Do NOT be spouting this bullshit. Donā€™t be a pawn in her little victim game. Sheā€™s a bad person, you do NOT need to be played by her game. You want to fix the two party system? Go to your State assembly, because THAT IS WHERE IT IS FIXED.

    This little path that you explained, youā€™re being played by dumb motherfuckers who are halfwits at politics.

    but since they decided to disenfranchise me and do everything they can to silence me, my went Green

    No what happened was you lost your backbone and in your moment of weakness you got played by dumber idiots than Trump. The fact you think this two party system is fixed by the President election proves you have zero fucking clues. You know what, you should likely throw your vote away. I donā€™t think you have anything to contribute to the left or the right. If you just stay 3rd party for the rest of your life, both parties can just write you off. If you vote 3rd party the rest of your life and not fix this at the State level, then youā€™re no different than a dead voter. Thatā€™s what Republicans and Democrats know about third parties, thatā€™s why they donā€™t sweat them.

    Because this whole ā€œif we only get 5%ā€ argument is a lie they tell you to keep sending them checks. Theyā€™ve been getting money, theyā€™ve been getting election dollars, they arenā€™t hurting for cash. Jill just doesnā€™t want the job, because if she did, she would be running the party a whole lot like the 1980s and not this current ā€œletā€™s waste money as fast as we possibly canā€ mentality she currently has.

    Itā€™s right there in black and white. Theyā€™re being handed the tools to succeed down ticket. They just donā€™t want it and thatā€™s why they donā€™t go down ballot, thatā€™s why they have zero ground game, thatā€™s why they disappear for four years right after the election. They donā€™t want to win, they just want your fucking money.


  • If politics is killing innocent people

    Itā€™s not just politics, itā€™s a rule of law. We have passed in the past under different administrations laws requiring funding to the Israeli state. Only via our legal process can we undo that. Now there are some laws that allow the President to suspend funding that has been legally appropriated, but those only go so far.

    Itā€™s a will of Congress and the understanding that we are a nation of laws, that money keeps funneling towards Israel. But at the same time there are some bending of the laws via creative justification that allows us to setup a floating pier and deliver supplies to the Palestinians.

    And Israel doesnā€™t want aid being delivered by the United States because at the same time it allows them to begin collecting evidence against Israelā€™s current abuse of human rights.

    There has to be an understanding that there is a process by which an administration has to follow. Itā€™s dumb we have that process, I wonā€™t deny that, but until Congress gets off itā€™s collective ass and change that, we have to follow that process. Otherwise, just doing whatever opens the door for folks to do whatever in the opposite direction as well and have zero recourse.

    But killing innocent people is still so bad that I am harmed by it being politically acceptable

    Itā€™s not acceptable but at the same time we can have two takes to it. We either follow our laws or we donā€™t. Everything that has created this situation, that didnā€™t happen overnight. The laws that provide unquestionable aid to Israel, those werenā€™t passed in the last four years. It takes time to undo those things. Now that does provide a means for innocent people to die and you have every right to be disgusted by it. I will absolutely not tell you, that your opinion is incorrect. Itā€™s dumb that weā€™ve put ourselves into this position.

    But that said, absent any system, this ā€œI no longer care about politicsā€, the ONLY thing that will do is ensure the complete and effective eradication of these people. The ā€œI no longer care about politicsā€ stance is synonymous with the ā€œI donā€™t care if these innocent people are wiped from this Earth.ā€

    This is a difficult conflict and itā€™s wild that so many people toss their hands into the air and shout ā€œI donā€™t care anymore!!ā€ the second the conflict actually gets into one of itā€™s really difficult phases. If this phase of the conflict troubles you, you are not an ally for any means of protecting innocents that you think you are. Protection of peopleā€™s lives is dirty ass work, if the messiness of the politics of this troubles you, you wouldnā€™t be able to save anyone anyway. It may come as a surprise to many here, but humanitarian crisis like this are messy affairs, shit is complex, and nobody ever walks away hands clean. Who knew the world was like this?


  • I just donā€™t get how people are looking at Harrisā€™ stance as being pro-genocide. Biden is the President and historically, foreign policy during the tenure of the President by the Vice President doesnā€™t veer too far off from the President. That said, Harris has absolutely called for investigation into the suffering of civilians in the conflict.

    Congress sets the budgetary amount of aid to direct to Israel and the President distributes the money via their diplomatic channels. There are very few options for the President to just suspend funding, which Biden has done twice for weapons under the rules established within 10 USC Ā§ 362 (a)(1)

    Of the amounts made available to the Department of Defense, none may be used for any training, equipment, or other assistance for a unit of a foreign security force if the Secretary of Defense has credible information that the unit has committed a gross violation of human rights.

    But outside that, thereā€™s very little the President can do once Congress approves funding and that funding has been signed into law. This is why an independent channel investigation is required and is exactly what Harris has called for. This would allow the the US Government to establish their own inquiry into the human abuses. This would give the required evidence to cancel funding under Title XII authority. But none of that can happen overnight. Itā€™s not an easy path to override the will of Congress.

    On the opposite side, Trump has indicated that he will absolutely turn a blind eye to the whole thing and allow Israel to determine solely the ā€œbestā€ course of action for their current conflict. Trump has literally stated in his rallies:

    From the start, Harris has worked to tie Israelā€™s hand behind its back, demanding an immediate cease-fire, always demanding cease-fire

    Trump would not see a cease-fire as a required condition for the on-going conflict.

    Harris and Democrats historically have called for a two-state solution. Trumpā€™s plan which has been broadly adopted by the Republican party in general would:

    • Give Palestinians only about 15% of their original territory
    • Jerusalem would become Israelā€™s undivided capitol, meaning all claims by the Palestinians to the eastern half of the city would be tossed out.
    • Allow Palestinians to ā€œachieve an independent stateā€ via a means that is not clearly defined in the plan but indicated that Israel would have a final say in that process.
    • ā€œNo Palestinians or Israelis will be uprooted from their homesā€ indicating that the territory that Israel has already colonized from their current conflict would become Israelā€™s.
    • Would put Israel and Jordan on equal footing for the administration of al-Haram al-Sharif, which will absolutely ignite a conflict.
    • Any territory allocated to Palestinians would have to undergo a four year ā€œwaitā€ period, but thereā€™s no protections from Israel obtaining that territory if done so during conflict. So Israel could provoke someone to fight them and that would give them justification to take the land during this ā€œfour year wait periodā€.

    Trump has all but given up completely on a two-state solution. Which means, heā€™s for a one state solution. And people are fooling themselves if they believe that Trump would seek a ā€œpeacefulā€ one state solution. He has told Netanyahu directly, ā€œJust get it done quicklyā€. Now we can play a game as what manner is used to ā€œget it done quicklyā€ means, but only idiots are the oneā€™s thinking that doesnā€™t give a tacit nod to ethic cleansing.

    I just have no idea what these people who think Harris is a bad idea for Palestinians are actually thinking. And really, I donā€™t think they are thinking at all. You have one solution that is long, stupid, and required because we are a nation of laws. And you have the other solution that is ā€œfuck it, firebomb them all and call it doneā€. It is difficult to imagine that there are truly people this blind and ignorant to this reality. But yet, here we are.

    The notion that we might get a 3rd party into office like twenty years from now if we start today, helps nobody if the people weā€™re trying to help are all eradicated over the next four years. Going down this ā€œthird roadā€ only ensures an outcome where we are fifteen years too late to help.




  • Some unsolicited comments on this:

    • I would absolutely trade Dr. Bunsen Honeydew with Dr. Mario.
    • The Dr. Pepper position is just pure slander.
    • Dr. Horrible and Doogie Howser, MD is the true duality of humanity.
    • Zoidberg is suspiciously much higher along the Y-axis than I would personally prefer.
    • Dr. Dre, like I would forget, is absolutely a quadrant II candidate. Thereā€™s just no way Iā€™d put Spin Doctors high along the Y-axis than Dre.

  • But even in the liturgical sense of benevolence, schism is a thing, and often enough that we literally made the word schism for that and everyone else just adopted it to means a break of different ideas that used to be one.

    So even those of the same religion have over time turned on each other. Thereā€™s just been no successful consolidation of organized power under a single person or dictum that stayed free of eventually violence to itā€™s own members. Power always thirsts more power. Thatā€™s been all of history.


  • calls for a ā€œbenevolent dictatorā€ to run the US

    These chucklefucks keep getting this part so wrong. No dictator stays benevolent for long. Weā€™ve got something like 60 centuries of history to back that up. Eventually they demand unwavering fealty to their, and only theirs alone, lineage.

    I feel like sometimes dressing up as Gandalf and smacking these idiots over their head and reminding them ā€œonly one who can bend them to his will. And he does not share power!ā€

    Like for fucks sake this is such an ingrained human trait weā€™re making fucking fictional stories based off it and needing zero additional information on why anyone would desire such a monopoly on power.

    I swear the lot of these people have their heads firmly planted deep into their lower digestive tract.