The point is that if Harris wins, then Hakeem Jeffries will likely be House Speaker on January 6

I literally quoted the linked article

No, you didn’t see this poll predicting Hillary crushing Iowa.

The Selzer poll is one of the best, it only looks at Iowa, and in 2016 it was one of the few that said Trump was doing much better than everyone expected.

In 2020 it said Biden was doing better than Clinton, but Trump was nevertheless doing better than expected.

In both cases, it was spot on. And this year, it says Trump is doing far worse than everyone thinks.

That said… Go vote!

That’s just not true.

Both houses must vote separately to agree to the objection. Otherwise, the objection fails and the vote or votes are counted.

Right, LV polls often don’t ask where you voted.

But this article is not about a poll. They are looking publicly available PA voting records. They look like this:

• Doe, John: voted in 2024, 2020
• Doe, Jane: voted in 2024

PA isn’t going to cross-reference their database with other states. So there is no good way to tell if Jane Doe is a first time voter or just a recent move. Either way, she is a new voter.

That’s huge because new voters aren’t counted by pollsters as “likely voters”.

Actually, they might be. In this article, a “new voter” is someone who did not vote in 2020 in Pennsylvania.

If they voted elsewhere in 2020 (ie recently moved to PA) then they could be counted as likely voters in polls even though they are “new voters”.

That’s not how it works.

When the EV’s for a state are counted, the House and Senate have one opportunity to object.

If there is an objection, a vote is called. A majority in both houses is necessary to reject those EVs.

If there is not a majority in both houses then the motion fails, the EV’s are accepted, and the VP moves on to the next state.

enthusiasm doesn’t pay the bills

We don’t need your platitudes either

When the votes are counted, the presiding officer will be VP Kamala Harris, not the House Speaker.

And the only way to block a state’s certification is if both the House and Senate agree. Otherwise they have to accept the results certified by the governor.

It’s the “same thing” in the sense that they both already happened.

I think you underestimate your customers.

A 10 day weather forecast typically includes a graph with a y-axis break. It is meant for the general public, and most people have no difficulty interpreting it.

I think completing pre-algebra (generally taught in middle school or high school) is sufficient to understand a table.

And if you can understand a table, then you can understand a graph with a y axis break.

Graphs that don’t start the y axis at 0 are shitty at conveying information

If you know how to read a graph, then it doesn’t matter if the y-axis includes zero

Just to be clear:

• Voter registration in VA has required the voter’s SSN (if they have one) since 1971. It’s actually written into the VA Constitution!

• Driver’s licenses have required the driver’s SSN (if they have one) since 1968

• Citizenship is on drivers license applications because of the Real ID Act, passed by Congress in 2005

So I don’t think you can blame the current crop of MAGA idiots for collecting this information. I don’t even necessarily blame anyone for trying to combine the datasets.

However, doing so less than 90 days before an election is absolutely unacceptable.

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you must provide your Social Security number

I’m not sure what you mean by this. An SSN is not proof of citizenship, for example if you have a green card then you are eligible for Social Security but not eligible to vote.

But wasn’t citizenship checked when registering?

To register in Virginia, you only need to fill out a form.

There is a box on the form to affirm your citizenship, but you do not need to present any documents that could be used to check your status.

According to https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/which-states-offer-same-day-voter-registration-and-why-does-it-matter/

Washington, D.C. and most of the states with same-day registration — California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming — make the process easy and accessible. However, a handful present obstacles.

Some states, including Michigan and Montana, don’t allow for same-day registration at polling places, only at other locations like city clerks’ offices or county election offices.

North Carolina only permits same-day registration during the early voting period, and New York is even more restrictive — only allowing it during the first day of early voting on Oct. 26.

New Hampshire has the opposite restriction — only offering Election Day registration.

A ridiculous ruling, but fortunately Virginia has same-day registration. So if you show up to vote and find you’ve been purged, you can immediately re-register.

No, but WaPo is not literally paying a tithe or tax.