Key quote:
Biden’s defiance against calls for him to leave the presidential campaign after last month’s debate have only worsened his chances in November, Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote.
“Biden was losing pre-debate. Now, he’s losing by a bit more,” she said, adding that the possibility Biden leaves the race at this point is “remote.”
Citing postdebate polling, Cook announced it will move Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from “Tossup” to “Lean Republican.”
Nevada, Arizona and Georgia have been on the “R” side for quite some time now.
I’m not currently seeing a path where Biden can win. Last time it all came down to New Mexico.
This time? Michigan is the only bright spot.
Arizona - Trump +3 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/Nevada - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/New Mexico - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/Georgia - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Biden +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/Wisconsin - Biden +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/Here’s what it looks mapped out:
Biden CANNOT LOSE either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He HAS to carry both to block a Trump win.
This poll came out an hour ago. Maps not up to date yet.
Sadly, we won’t know what we had until it’s gone.
This is so dumb- let’s elect Hitler’s biggest fan cause the other guy is slightly not as good as I’d like.
ITs not about what I like or dont like.
Biden isn’t winning this race. He is and will continue to lose to Trump.
If you dont want Trump, you must replace Biden.
Sure, put Bernie up, I’ll vote for him again.
Why do you insist on these insane projections?
Harris is fine. Fucking Newsom is fine. Fucking ANYONE who is able to get through a fucking sentence where they remember how the sentence started is fine. It would also be great if they didn’t advocate for the dropping bombs on brown babies so we could win back MI/ MN/ and WI, but at this point, Biden has an effectively 0% chance of winning this thing.
If you advocate for him, or are trying to prevent a conversation that is critical of him, YOU are a Trump supporter.
I’m not advocating for anyone other than not trump- but I am concerned that putting someone up that no one knows much about is gonna cause people to just not vote out of frustration/apathy/ignorance, and then what happens?
That hand wringing attitude has left us with a incompetent candidate who is absolutely losing this race.
Unfortunately, that only goes a couple of ways:
- Biden stays in and loses.
- Biden drops out for Kamala, who loses, because nobody likes her.
- The DNC replaces both of them, and that candidate loses because the voters believe they are owed a choice.
The only way I see a “D” win is for Joe to die in office, Kamala picks up the reins and gets a massive sympathy vote.
I mean, you and others where we’re advocating that Biden was our only chance of beating Trump, and you in particular worked to silence voices trying to inform people that Biden was not winning this election.
So you shouldn’t be surprised that I weight your opinion on what “will” happen politically to effectively 0.
It’s okay guys because his vibe from crowd sizes overrides aggregate Grade-A polling. And if he loses, well, at least he did his goodest.
The goodest.
